Wednesday, October 8, 2008

California Marriage Amendment Winning According to New Poll

Following a recent spate of television and radio ads on behalf of a constitutional ban on same-sex marriage, a new poll suggests a rise in support for Proposition 8, the ballot measure that would block gay men and lesbians from marrying.

The new poll found that 47 percent expected to vote yes on Proposition 8, which would eliminate the right of same-sex couples to marry, while 42 percent expected to vote no. That is a notable difference from a SurveyUSA poll released Sept. 25 which found 44 percent planned to vote yes, while 49 percent planned to vote no — an apparent 10 point swing.

The San Jose Mercury News article concludes:
Surprisingly, the new poll showed some of the strongest support among younger voters, those aged 18 to 34, a group that has been consistently opposed to a same-sex marriage ban in polls by other organizations and in an earlier poll by SurveyUSA.
SurveyUSA noted, however, that the youngest voters "are the hardest to poll" and are "the most unpredictable voters."

(Actually, this youth vote result is consistent with the May LA Times poll results. We have frequently been told that as more and more of the young people vote, same sex marriage is inevitable because the younger generation has been "educated" to be far more supportive of it. However, for the LA Times poll in May, when asked if they supported same sex marriage, civil unions or neither, only the people 65 and older had a higher percent that said "Neither" than the 18-34 year olds. See here.)

The game changer ads:




4 comments:

The Underground Pewster said...

Those ads indeed sound effective. Have you heard any protests over those ads?

Perpetua said...

Well, if you skip down to about 2/3rds of the the way through this article in the San Francisco Chronicle of October 6th, it says:

"A number of alumni who saw the ad contacted the university president's office to protest what appeared to be Pepperdine's own endorsement of Prop. 8, which would violate its tax-exempt status. The university is affiliated with the Churches of Christ.

University spokesman Jerry Derloshon said that was never the intention, and last week campus executives fired off a letter to the Yes on 8 campaign asking that it remove the crawler identifying Peterson as a Pepperdine professor.

Late Friday, the campaign said the ad was being revised."

Apparently the Yes on 8 people dealt with this by removing the identification in the first ad. But for the second ad, they kept the identification and added a smaller disclaimer to the bottom right corner that reads, "For identity purposes only."

The Underground Pewster said...

Not exactly a protest over the content of the ad.
Not hearing any protests, the ads sound even more effective.

Perpetua said...

Well, the No on 8 forces are sounding the alarm that they need more money to fight these ads. Gay City News says:

"Our worst nightmares are coming true," said Geoff Kors, executive director of Equality California, which is leading the fight to defeat Proposition 8, in a written appeal to supporters October 7. "Today we learned of the massive $25.4 million our opponents have raised so far. They are using this war chest to broadcast lies: 24/7 and up and down the state of California. And the polls show the lies are working. We need your donation now."

The pro-gay side in the Prop 8 battle has raised just under $16 million to date, or less than two-thirds the amount raised by opponents of marriage equality.

"As a result of not being able to match dollar for dollar, we have seen a change," Kors said of the altered polling data emerging in recent days.

In an "emergency" conference call with LGBT media on October 7, Kors and Steve Smith, ECQA's campaign manager for No on 8, said that internal polling done by the group found the anti-gay measure passing by four percentage points.

An independent poll released by a CBS affiliate in California concluded that, among likely voters, the gay marriage ban would win by a margin of 47 to 42 percent. A survey completed by the same polling organization 11 days earlier found the opposite - a Prop 8 defeat by five points.

"So this is crunch time," Kors said in his written appeal. "With less than a month before the election, we must get on the air now to answer these lies and swing votes back to our side."